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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 16

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:41) 11-C.Dicker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.94 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 16, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 26, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP