4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 73

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 16-J.Scott punts 36 yards to HOU 37, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.93 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model