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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 46

Houston Texans 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to LAC 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.78 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model