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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 8

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 9-J.Tucker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.36 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 8, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model