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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 74

Buffalo Bills 21 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(14:00) 8-S.Martin punts 54 yards to BAL 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 18-S.Sims to BAL 36 for 16 yards (26-Ty.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 74, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 32, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model