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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 52

Buffalo Bills 21 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 8-S.Martin punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.94 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 52, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model