4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 61

Baltimore Ravens 19 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(10:10) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews up the middle to BAL 41 for 2 yards (43-T.Bernard).

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.96 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model