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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 2

Buffalo Bills 24 – Baltimore Ravens 19

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 2-T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +3.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 2, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP