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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 66

Buffalo Bills 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 8-S.Martin punts 56 yards to KC 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.82 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 24, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model