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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 61

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end to KC 45 for 6 yards (7-Ta.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.08 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 20, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model