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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(3:56) 8-S.Martin punts 45 yards to KC 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 81-N.Remigio to BUF 34 for 41 yards (42-Do.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.04 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 28, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model