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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 33

Buffalo Bills 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(6:28) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right end to KC 30 for 3 yards (32-N.Bolton; 56-G.Karlaftis).

The Three Options

GO +2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.85 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 33, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model