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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 75

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Buffalo Bills 22

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 14-M.Araiza punts 51 yards to BUF 24, Center-41-J.Winchester. 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at BUF 30 for 6 yards (2-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.14 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model