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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 52

Buffalo Bills 22 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen up the middle to 50 for 2 yards (23-D.Tranquill). FUMBLES (23-D.Tranquill), and recovers at 50. KC-95-C.Jones was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.64 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 52, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model