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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 35

Buffalo Bills 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 2-T.Bass 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.77 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 35, worth -1.97 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP