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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 28

Washington Commanders 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(14:46) 47-Z.Gonzalez 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.60 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 28, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 38, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model