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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 36

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 4-J.Elliott 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.53 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model