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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 69

Philadelphia Eagles 27 – Washington Commanders 15

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to WAS 26, Center-49-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-48-K.Blasingame.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.33 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 27, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model