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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 66

Washington Commanders 23 – Philadelphia Eagles 41

What Actually Happened

(11:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz to WAS 41 for 7 yards (32-R.Blankenship).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.97 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 24, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model