Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 60

Washington Commanders 23 – Philadelphia Eagles 41

(10:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels sacked at WAS 31 for -9 yards (3-N.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

What Happened

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.69 EP
66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -3.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model