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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 16

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(8:01) 47-Z.Gonzalez 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.96 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 16, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP