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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 63

Washington Commanders 23 – Philadelphia Eagles 55

What Actually Happened

(1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to WAS 37 for no gain (97-M.Ojomo).

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.14 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 63, worth -2.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model