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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 7

Buffalo Bills 7 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 15-M.Prater 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-40-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.30 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 7, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP