Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 67

Baltimore Ravens 27 – Buffalo Bills 19

(6:25) 11-J.Stout punts 51 yards to BUF 16, Center-46-N.Moore. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 16 for no gain (38-K.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.03 EP
60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 67, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model