Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 71

Buffalo Bills 19 – Baltimore Ravens 27

(2:50) 40-B.Robbins punts 39 yards to BAL 32, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.01 EP
57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model