Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 16 at the 63

Buffalo Bills 25 – Baltimore Ravens 40

(9:27) 40-B.Robbins punts 28 yards to BAL 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-69-R.Ferguson.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.79 EP
69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model