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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 58

Buffalo Bills 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 40-B.Robbins punts 43 yards to BAL 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-28-S.Franklin.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.60 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 58, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP