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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 42

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(9:36) 8-R.Rehkow punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.45 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP