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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 27

Cleveland Browns 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(:27) 25-A.Szmyt 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.83 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model