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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 17

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 2-E.McPherson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.09 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 17, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 27, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP