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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 70

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 49 yards to CLE 21, Center-46-W.Wagner. 2-D.Carter to CLE 33 for 12 yards (46-W.Wagner; 34-S.Perine).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.27 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -2.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 28, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model