4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 20 at the 50

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(:30) 8-R.Rehkow punts 49 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-37-P.Jules.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.32 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 50, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.74 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP