4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 1

Cleveland Browns 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(12:44) 98-A.Huntington reported in as eligible. 35-R.Sanders right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.76 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model