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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 30

Detroit Lions 3 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:24) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams to GB 19 for 11 yards (29-X.McKinney). Penalty on GB-20-J.Bullard, Illegal Contact, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.08 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model