4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 68

Green Bay Packers 17 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(7:52) 19-D.Whelan punts 61 yards to DET 7, Center-42-M.Orzech. 11-K.Raymond to DET 21 for 14 yards (30-C.Brooks; 55-K.Enagbare).

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.71 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 68, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 26, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP