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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 46

Green Bay Packers 17 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(:03) 19-D.Whelan punts 38 yards to DET 8, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.08 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 13, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model