Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 99

Detroit Lions 6 – Green Bay Packers 17

(12:51) 3-J.Fox punts 55 yards to GB 44, Center-49-H.Hatten. 11-J.Reed to DET 36 for 20 yards (30-K.Dorsey).

The Three Options

GO -4.09 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.60 EP
67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 99, worth -6.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model