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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 10

Green Bay Packers 17 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 10-J.Love up the middle to DET 8 for 2 yards (46-J.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +3.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.27 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 10, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model