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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 20

Green Bay Packers 24 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 17-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.63 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 20, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP