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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 13

Detroit Lions 6 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 18-I.TeSlaa. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-I.TeSlaa for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +3.92 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model