Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 80

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

(7:01) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to GB 37, Center-49-H.Hatten. 0-M.Golden ran ob at GB 48 for 11 yards (41-A.Pittman).

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.16 EP
66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model