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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 16

Green Bay Packers 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 17-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.27 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 16, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP