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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 20 at the 27

Houston Texans 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 15-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.38 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 27, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model