Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 85

Houston Texans 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

(12:59) 6-T.Townsend punts 61 yards to LA 24, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 19-X.Smith to LA 29 for 5 yards (22-J.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -3.33 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.02 EP
70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 85, worth -5.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model