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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 39

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 42-E.Evans punts 34 yards to HOU 5, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.05 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP