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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 32

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 77-J.Moore reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 29-K.Hunt pushed ob at LAC 26 for 6 yards (0-D.Henley).

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.73 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model