Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 71

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

(14:08) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to KC 21, Center-41-R.Lovato. 81-N.Remigio to KC 20 for -1 yards (36-J.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.31 EP
62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 71, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model