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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 65

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 12

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 8-O.Hampton left end to LAC 39 for 4 yards (32-N.Bolton). KC-23-D.Tranquill was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.95 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 65, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 23, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model