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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 90

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to KC 34, Center-41-R.Lovato. 81-N.Remigio to KC 42 for 8 yards (43-T.Dye; 53-D.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.14 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 90, worth -5.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 47, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP