Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 57

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

(3:34) 14-M.Araiza punts 36 yards to LAC 21, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.73 EP
64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model